Dalio’s 15-metric empire cycle scorecard shows that debt burden and internal conflict are the key indicators distinguishing the top from the decline — they turn red while other metrics like education and military may still appear healthy. A quant dashboard should weight debt burden and wealth gaps as leading deterioration signals. Governance/rule of law and character/civility deteriorate in the late decline phase. Education and innovation metrics are lagging indicators — they remain green long after the financial system is stressed.