Three macro cycles run simultaneously and interact: (1) the debt/money cycle, (2) the internal order cycle, and (3) the external peace/war cycle. All three cycling into their ‘bad’ phases simultaneously produces the most severe historical disruptions — debt crises, civil conflict, and international war co-occurring. The framework requires tracking each cycle’s phase independently. A quant should maintain a 3×3 phase matrix (each cycle in early/mid/late stage) and understand which phase combinations historically correspond to which asset class behavior.