The social/psychological dynamics that precede political and financial crises: multigenerational wealth softens discipline (hardship builds strength; strength enables prosperity; prosperity breeds complacency; complacency enables decline). Short-termism in decision-making and partisan polarization are observable early-warning signals of a late-cycle empire. The transition from cooperative to divisive class relationships and win-win to lose-lose international dynamics are leading indicators of conflict risk. The prisoner’s dilemma framing implies that once trust breaks down, rational actors defect even when cooperation would produce better aggregate outcomes — which is why great-power conflicts persist despite mutual destruction.