Empirical base rate from 2,200 years of great power history: when >80% of economic indicators simultaneously exceed 1-standard-deviation bad threshold, the 5-year probability of major internal conflict is 30% — nearly 3× the baseline ~11%. This provides a quantifiable trigger for increasing geopolitical risk premium in portfolios. The signal is broad economic deterioration across many dimensions simultaneously, not any single indicator. The non-linearity (nearly flat from <40% to 60%, then a jump above 80%) suggests a threshold effect — widespread economic stress tips into conflict through social dynamics, not linearly.