The US internal conflict gauge (based on internal strife and political conflict indicators) shows the 2020 reading approaching Civil War-era levels — the only comparable peacetime reading in US history. This is a historically significant signal: similar gauge levels in other countries (tracked across 2,200 years) corresponded to 30% probability of major internal conflict in the following 5 years. The US is not immune to the same dynamics that produced civil conflict in other great powers.