Macro Regime Scorecard
Current regime: (late, stable, acute)
Last updated: 2026-04-20
Q1: Debt Cycle Stage → late
| Indicator | Value | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Revenue | 650.6% ⚠️ STALE | 2025-10-01 | ⚠️ |
| r - g spread | 0.42pp | 2026-04-16 | ✅ |
| Primary Deficit/Revenue | 30.0% | 2025-09-30 | ✅ |
| Fed BS/GDP | N/A | None | ❌ |
| Credit-to-GDP Gap | -12.34pp ⚠️ STALE | 2025-07-01 | ⚠️ |
Q2: Near-Term Stress → stable
| Indicator | Value | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BBB Credit Spread | N/A | None | ❌ |
| VIX | 19.5 | 2026-04-20 | ✅ |
| 2-10 Yield Curve | N/A | None | ❌ |
| DXY | 98.06 | 2026-04-20 | ✅ |
| Gold/Oil Ratio | 50.5 | 2026-04-20 | ✅ |
| Policy Uncertainty (EPU) | N/A | None | ❌ |
Q3: Inflation Regime → acute
| Indicator | Value | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE YoY | N/A | None | ❌ |
| 5Y Breakeven | N/A | None | ❌ |
| Brent Oil | 95.4$/bbl | 2026-04-20 | ✅ |
| Gold YoY | 41.44% | 2026-04-20 | ✅ |
| M2 YoY | N/A | None | ❌ |
Tensions
No major tensions detected for current regime tuple.
Rules Triggered
🔴 R-001: Late cycle gold floor
Action: Increase gold allocation to 12-15% of investable assets
Vault: gold-real-assets-in-devaluation
Confidence: high
🔴 R-008: Dollar debasement risk
Action: Currency debasement risk elevated. Increase hard asset exposure: gold, commodities, foreign equities. Reduce USD cash.
Vault: 03-currency-monetary-systems
Confidence: high
🟡 R-009: Yield curve inversion — recession signal
Action: Inverted yield curve signals upcoming recession. Begin rotating out of cyclicals into defensives and short-duration assets.
Vault: short-term-debt-cycle
Confidence: medium
🟡 R-012: Geopolitical tension — diversify geography
Action: Gold/oil ratio and gold surge signal geopolitical fear premium. Maintain international diversification. Avoid single-country concentration.
Vault: economic-war-precedes-hot-war
Confidence: medium
🔴 R-013: Credit stress broadening
Action: Credit stress + inversion = late cycle credit crunch forming. Reduce high-yield exposure. Prefer investment grade or cash.
Vault: bubble-formation-signals
Confidence: high
🔴 R-014: Breakeven surge — inflation expectations unanchored
Action: Inflation expectations becoming unanchored. TIPS outperform nominals. Add commodity exposure. Central bank credibility at risk.
Vault: 03-currency-monetary-systems
Confidence: high
Vault Chapters to Consult
Based on current regime, prioritize reading: