Macro Regime Scorecard
Current regime: (late, stable, stable)
Last updated: 2026-04-18
Q1: Debt Cycle Stage → late
| Indicator | Value | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Revenue | 650.6% ⚠️ STALE | 2025-10-01 | ⚠️ |
| r - g spread | 0.42pp | 2026-04-16 | ✅ |
| Primary Deficit/Revenue | 30.0% | 2025-09-30 | ✅ |
| Fed BS/GDP | 21.3% | 2026-04-15 | ✅ |
Q2: Near-Term Stress → stable
| Indicator | Value | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BBB Credit Spread | 81.0bps | 2026-04-16 | ✅ |
| VIX | 17.5 | 2026-04-17 | ✅ |
| 2-10 Yield Curve | 0.55pp | 2026-04-17 | ✅ |
| DXY | 98.1 | 2026-04-17 | ✅ |
| Gold/Oil Ratio | 53.75 | 2026-04-17 | ✅ |
Q3: Inflation Regime → stable
| Indicator | Value | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE YoY | 2.87% ⚠️ STALE | 2026-02-01 | ⚠️ |
| 5Y Breakeven | 2.56% | 2026-04-17 | ✅ |
| Brent Oil | 90.38$/bbl | 2026-04-17 | ✅ |
| Gold YoY | 46.81% | 2026-04-17 | ✅ |
| M2 YoY | 4.49% ⚠️ STALE | 2026-02-01 | ⚠️ |
Tensions
No major tensions detected for current regime tuple.
Rules Triggered
🔴 R-001: Late cycle gold floor
Action: Increase gold allocation to 12-15% of investable assets
Vault: gold-real-assets-in-devaluation
Confidence: high
🟡 R-012: Geopolitical tension — diversify geography
Action: Gold/oil ratio and gold surge signal geopolitical fear premium. Maintain international diversification. Avoid single-country concentration.
Vault: economic-war-precedes-hot-war
Confidence: medium
Vault Chapters to Consult
Based on current regime, prioritize reading: